（载香港“中美聚焦”网站，2012年12月31日）

在刚刚过去的日本众院选举中，安倍晋三率领的自民党胜了。但是，仔细分析一些数据和情况，人们就会明白：胜者并未获得广泛的祝福，胜利也不值得高调的庆贺。

　  首先，这次选举是日本战后投票率最低的一次。根据官方数字，此次大选投票率不及六成，这意味着在日本超过一亿的选民中，有四千多万人放弃了投票。与2009年那场把自民党拉下台的选举相比，这次重新把它推上去的选民人数足足少了一千万。对于投票的冷清，日本媒体的分析比较一致，认为最主要的原因还是选民内心的困惑。12月13日，也就是投票日的前三天，仍有四成的人没有拿定主意该如何投票。日本报纸登出的一封读者来信颇为形象， 说这次选举的情形，就像是中午的饮食街，很多店家都高声招徕生意，可哪家店的菜品内容都无法真正吸引食客。

　  但是，到饭点了总得吃饭，选举到来时也终归需要投票。这次自民党成为最后的赢家，根本原因在于它是一家“老字号的大店”。这三年，尤其是3·11以来，民主党这家“新店”不靠谱的种种表现，已使很多日本选民不敢再对改革势力抱有太大的期待。因此，这次选举，日本选民一方面报复性地抛弃了民主党，另一方面也把对维新会、众人党等新党的支持限定在了一个有所保留的程度内，这就使自民党成为了无奈之下“消极投票”的票仓。实际上，在这次的300个小选区中，自民党的得票率连过半都未达到，这意味着该党受肯定、获信赖的程度实在是差强人意。而其之所以能在议席上获得压倒性的八成比例，完全有赖于日本现行的以小选区为主的选举制度。小选区制一票定乾坤，只要比对手多出一票，就是此胜彼败，生死两界。这种选举酷似“奥赛罗游戏”，黑白间翻转如此迅速，变化如此戏剧，身在其中，自民党不会不深有体会。正因如此，即使胜选，安倍等党魁的笑容也是稍纵即逝，一脸严肃。

　  当然，安倍的严肃，还有另外的意味。按他自己的话说，即将组立的内阁要带领日本“突破危机”，“责任重大”。在竞选纲领中，自民党列举的危机涉及灾区、经济、教育、外交等，所有这些问题，不仅责任重大，想突破也确实困难重重。所以，在17日凌晨的“脸谱”致谢留言中，安倍特别强调“真正的战斗才刚刚开始”。不难体会，安倍的严肃，也是一种武士身临战场般的严肃。

　  但问题是，这所有的危机和困局，仅仅靠严肃的战斗姿态，就可以解决、可以突破吗？在中国人看来，安倍的仪容颇带忧苦之相。僵固呆滞，容易偏执困顿。打不开局面，路越走越窄，最后，很容易把自己给困死了。这既是近二十年来日本日益窘迫的病灶之所在，也是未来安倍令人担忧之所在。拿中日关系来看，虽然胜选后很快表示有意改善，但从这一两日他的一些表态中，已至少有三点令人感到，“安倍流”非但很难“突破危机”，反倒更有可能制造新的危机。

　  第一，所谓在世界格局中考量两国关系。安倍表示，要以日美同盟为轴，加强日印、日澳的紧密关系，同时来处理与中国的关系。日本与别国的关系是日本的事情，但如果发展这些关系，是为了抗衡中国，那么日本的算盘就彻底打错了，中日关系不但不会改善，反而只会进一步恶化。

　  第二，所谓在钓鱼岛问题上“没有谈判余地”。安倍执政后，如果其政权拒绝承认纷争，并坚持强化什么“实效支配”，领土纷争不但不会平息，反而会加速把两国关系推向对立甚至对决的危境。

　  第三，所谓“对没能参拜靖国神社悔恨至极”。在其新任期内，在靖国神社或历史责任问题上，如果连上次任首相时“暧昧”姿态的底线都守不住，那么安倍不但会在两国关系史中被打上不诚实的烙印，现实也将拒绝再给他任何为两国关系转圜做出贡献的机会。

　  日本的危机，近期看是仍在发酵的福岛核泄漏事故，中期看是20多年持续低迷沉沦的经济，长期看是如何保住“和平与繁荣”的发展模式。但愿即将归来的首相安倍，给日本老百姓带来安宁，而不是危厄。

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　  （作者金嬴博士系中国社会科学院日本研究所副研究员） 

Jin Ying（金赢）, a researcher at the Institute of Japan Studies at China’s Academy of Social Sciences

December 31, 2012  

Shinzo Abe has led the Liberal Democratic Party to win the Japanese House of Representatives election. However, the election victory doesn’t mean a widespread support for the winner; nor does it deserve any hype, given the unfavorable statistics in the voting.

The past few days witnessed the lowest voter turnout in the Japanese Diet election since the end of World War II. According to official statistics, the turnout rate was lower than 60 percent, indicating that more than 40 million of the country’s 100 million-member electorate dumped their ballots. In contrast to the 2009 election that toppled the LDP from power, people voting for the party were 10 million less this year. Japanese media attributed the apathy to voters’ last-minute vacillation. On December 13, three days before the poll, about 40 percent of voters were still wavering. A reader of a newspaper likened the election to a food street where all eateries hawk their food but none of them can provide stuff that is really attractive to the customer.

Whatever the food, lunch has to be had at lunchtime. The LDP finally won over the “customers” thanks to its being a “big restaurant of famous brand”. On the contrary, the Democratic Party, a new player in the “eatery street”, failed to impress the customers. The DP’s poor performance over the past three years, especially in dealing with the March 11 earthquake and tsunami last year, has failed the Japanese people in their expectation for reforms. Therefore, the voters abandoned the DP resentfully and gave scant support to the Japan Restoration Association and Your Party, which also disappointed them as what they had regarded as a reform force. The LDP thus pocketed most of the “passively cast” votes.

In fact, the LDP failed to garner even half the votes in the 300 single-seat districts although it won the election. This indicates that the victory is far from a proof of having won the people’s trust. It was nothing else but the country’s electoral system that helped the LDP win 80 percent of the seats in the lower house. In the current electoral system, the single-seat districts voting plays the decisive role. A candidate only needs to win one more vote than the rival to clinch the victory. This is like the “Othello game”, in which the black and white can flip over instantaneously. The LDP is obviously fully aware of the game and that’s why Abe’s after-victory smile soon faded into a grim face.

Abe’s seriousness is not without a meaning. He has said that his new cabinet would face “heavy responsibilities” in leading Japan to “break through” crises. The crises, as mentioned in the LDP’s campaign program, are related to economy, education, foreign relations and reconstruction of disaster-hit areas. Tackling these crises is not an easy job. In a Facebook message posted on December 17, Abe put on a grave face of a samurai, saying that “the real battle has just begun.”

However, crises can not be overcome only by assuming a battling posture. In Chinese physiognomy, Abe’s countenance suggests anxiety and rigidness. Such a character usually generates a narrow-minded approach to things and will eventually bring one to a dead end. This is how Japan fared in the past two decades and also why we worry about Abe’s performance in the future. Take the relationship with China for example. Although he expressed a willingness to improve it after the election, at least three statements he made in the past few days proved worrying.

First, he said he would handle the Sino-Japanese relations from a global perspective by strengthening the US-Japan alliance and forging closer ties with India and Australia. Developing relationship with other countries is Japan’s own business. But if it is aimed at containment of China, the move will be of no avail except causing the Sino-Japanese relations to further deteriorate.

Second, Abe said that “there is no room for negotiation” on the issue of the Diaoyu Islands. If the Abe administration refuses to recognize the dispute and goes on with the so-called “practical control”, the territorial dispute will escalate to push the two countries to confrontation and even war.

Third, he said he “regrets awfully for failing to visit the Yasukuni shrine” when he last time served as Japanese prime minister. During that tenure, Abe was known for his “ambiguous attitude” on the issues of Yasukuni and Japan’s historical responsibility. If he can not even maintain such a low attitude as being “ambiguous” on those issues in his new tenure, he will not only be regarded as dishonest in the Sino-Japanese relationship, but will also be denied a chance to contribute to the improvement of the bilateral relations.

Of all the crises faced by Japan, the current one is the Fukushima nuclear accident that is still in ferment; the mid-term one is the economy that has been mired in sluggishness for more than 20 years; and the long-term one is how to secure a “peaceful and prosperous” development. Let’s hope that the Prime Minister-elect Abe will bring Japanese people peace rather than peril. 

Dr. Jin Ying is a researcher at the Institute of Japan Studies at China’s Academy of Social Sciences